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Election Surveys: To Greatly Influence or Merely to Inform?

Even before the height of electoral campaigns, surveys seem to be a big deal for voters, especially the candidates themselves. During night time on the news, SWS and Pulse Asia surveys are being announced on national television. The results create a big impact on viewers.

“’Wag n’yo sayangin ang boto n’yo sa alam n’yong matatalo lang.” (Don’t waste your vote for somebody you know is going to lose) That is what some people believe in. Their vote would go for the sure winners due to popularity brought by these surveys. With the aide of these surveys, voters can keep track of who is leading the race and who is not, and candidates can measure how much more effort should they exert in campaigning in order to make it to the top or maintain their rank.

On the other hand, some people still adhere to their beliefs and stick to the candidates they think would deserve the position – whether they win or not.

Surveys are done by selecting a number of people from all walks of life as a sample to represent the greater population but still with some human error. The results are obtained from these people’s choices during a certain period of time.

Despite the fact that the number of respondents in a survey is nothing compared to the actual number of voters in May 10, surveys are still the best tool to foresee the election results. This serves as a great advantage those who lead the survey results and a challenge for those who still do not.

Are surveys accurate?

Although surveys can foresee the election results they cannot be very accurate, yet, surveys could serve as a guide or as an informative tool for voters. There could still be underlying factors that make surveys subject to some errors.

In February of this year, the entire nation was shaken by the presidential survey results: Manny Villar tied the leading candidate Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III. This may have greatly influenced some voters but it is not consistent. Vice Presidentiable Mar Roxas still leads the race with a significantly huge percentage compared to his closest rival Loren Legarda. The senatorial candidates battle over the top 12 by means of advertising and other propaganda.

Some voters do not only rely on surveys on who to vote; they also depend on the candidates and the issues linked to them, their platforms, their experiences, et cetera. With all the controversies candidates are facing every day, are voters already confused?

Surveys can determine the trend of a candidate’s popularity based on their sample. For example, Mar Roxas has a -3% rating in the latest Social Weather Stations survey but he still leads the Vice Presidential race. However, this is just a quantified assumption. What surveys cannot accurately tell the voters is whether candidates, particularly those aiming for the only position, will actually win or not.

Whether voters use surveys to base their votes on or merely to be informed, these tests will always be useful in determining a candidate’s popularity in the entire nation.

Political Surveys: For Public Guidance or Tools to Mislead?

Surveys are great source of excellent information that can guide us accordingly in making sound decisions especially when they are conducted by trained professionals as well as unbiased researchers. There are standard procedures and strict tests in making questionnaires to be used in public surveys and making sure that there are no guiding questions that may compromise the ever important neutral stance is one of them. Using accurate surveys can easily predict current trends and foresee results in the near future, a very powerful tool especially now in the heated electoral race. And as the battle heats up, so do unofficial scoreboards and surveys that whip up frenzied parties from all sides in a numbers game much like fantasy sports drafts.

Although these surveys and unofficial tallies are scientifically conducted using standard operating protocols and are conducted by professionals who know their field inside and out, they are still subject to human error. And although they are accurate and precise to a certain degree albeit in a smaller scale, these surveys simply dwarf in comparison to the millions of voters who will turn up on May 10. Even so, aspiring political bets topping these unofficial scoreboards find themselves with the advantage of positive exposure while those clinging on the bottom rung are somewhat dragged through an embarrassing parade after exposing their incompetent scores.

Consider the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations that establishes vice president candidate Senator Manuel “Mar” Roxas II as the leader of the pack with 42 percent despite dropping down 3 percentage points. And Senator Loren Legarda finds herself trailing badly with 25 percent while Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay registers as the distant third placer with 21 percent. The remaining scraps where further divided between Bayani Fernando and Edu Manzano with 3 percent, Perfecto Yasay (1 percent), Dominador Chipeco (.4 percent) and Jay Sonza (.3 percent).

Although this may be a parallel reflection (as shown in media ratings and private polls) to current social and voting trends that shows standout leaders and those who are seriously losing by a huge margin, the survey was conducted to a mere 2,100 respondents and is still subject to a plus-or-minus margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. And although this margin of error is virtually irrelevant considering the imposing lead of Mar Roxas over all his competitors, the 2,100 registered voters simply pales in comparison to the millions upon millions of Filipinos who will cast their votes on the fated day. Although accurate to a certain degree, such a small scale simply cannot predict or mirror the grand scale of the actual voter turnout and results of the electoral race.

The Social Weathers Station is a very good source of guidance that could enlighten voters and give them valuable information to make informed decisions especially on such a crucial event like the national elections. But if surveys like these are continued to be conducted on such a small scale, they can be quite misleading because the percentages and the gaps between them may seem so lopsided when in fact they are but a minuscule representation of the actual preference of the greater public. If they want to accurately predict the voting trend of the general public, they should expand and include more respondents from all over the Philippines and from all walks of life as well. Only then will they have a clearer picture closer to actual figures and results that encompasses all social strata as well as massive geographical scope and proximity.

Manny Villar is Misleading the Poor

The electoral battle is indeed heating up just like the soaring temperatures El Nino brings as hot, loaded and barbed words are traded back and forth among candidates, especially in the tough competition of the Presidential race. And Senator Richard Gordon took off the gloves and comes out swinging for the fences as he singled out Senator Manny Villar and attacked his arguably best medium of exposure: political ads through the broadcast media and superstars of the local showbiz industry.

Senator Gordon stressed that indeed Villar climbed from rags to riches through hard work and perseverance and he is a good example for the masses with the message that anyone can reach the top with enough drive, dedication and resiliency. But Gordon said that Villar is apparently fooling the poor with his anti-poverty stance and popular ads hitting the airwaves now because in his long career as a politician, he never passed laws that really address the more important and pressing concerns of the masses like massive unemployment, widespread illiteracy as well as inadequate health care and homes.

Manny Villar has a long track record of almost 18 years in politics, serving three terms in the lower house from 1992 to 2001 and was the Speaker of the House from 1998 to 2000. From 2001 up to know, he served as a senator and he was the Senate President from 2006-2008. Despite this seemingly impressive run as a legislator, majority of the bills he passed where regarding housing reforms and laws, a venture that inadvertently advantageous for him because of his elite subdivisions and executive villages but inconsequential to the plight of the disadvantaged. Although they are nevertheless good laws and bills, they did not really alleviate concerns of the poor and Dick Gordon is pointing this as a fraudulent attempt to fool the masses that Villar will indeed end their poverty with his entourage of superstars and hit campaign songs.

Noynoy Aquino: Noynoy Says No More

In the political arena of backstabbers and conniving liars, alliances are formed and broken regularly as the wind of power shifts from side to side in a maelstrom of uncertainty and deceit. Rivals turn to allies and vice versa and no one is safe from the fickle nature of human beings. One day you’re enjoying your seemingly impregnable perch at the top and the next day, political lapdogs are biting at you from all directions hungry for blood. Political agendas, no matter how good and promising it looks on paper as whitewashed and edited by the media, still has the taint of deception and selfish gains as proven over and over again by our history of political corruption.

But there’s nothing vague about the political stance concerning the incumbent President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo of Benigno Aquino III or more popularly known as Noynoy. As the primary candidate and standard bearer of the opposition, he publicly expressed his disdain of the current administration and his disapproval of President Arroyo’s pursuit of a congressional seat. He firmly believes that the country has had enough of rampant and shameless corruption at the hands of this master deceiver.

But if they are both legally elected by the power of democracy and the constitution, he vowed that he will treat her in the same way that he would treat his closest political allies.

He would still endow her pork barrel because denying her so would incapacitate her constituents and would be detrimental for the people of Pampanga. But he also vowed that if he is elected in the highest power of the land, Gloria Arroyo will never be the Speaker of the House even if she has the support of most house representatives. And with such strong and clear statements like that, he is bound to get as much rivals as well as supporters that will be crucial especially in this stage of campaigning.

Manny Villar: The Battle of Entourages

The whole environment and interface of the Philippine elections is entirely different from other democratic countries. With our politicians proving that they are a breed apart from the world of governance with their underhanded tactics, two-faced masks and the ability to entertain better than to lead the people of this country. Votes are no longer decided by revolutionary platforms, comprehensive and profound debates as well as intellectual discussions and public forums. The battles are now decided onstage with the most popular of singers and catchy political jingles and multi-media advertisements. And whoever has the most “stars” in their constellation-like entourage will most likely enjoy the votes of devout fans and mindless followers.

And with Noynoy Aquino’s great clout in show business second only to the hype developed by the (in)famous Joseph “Erap” Estrada due to the former’s family name and sister who is pretty much one of the top dogs of the entertainment industry. And so Manny Villar also stepped up his own game of political advertising through celebrities and popular stars. With Dolphy and Willie Revillame under his belt and publicly declaring their support for him, he appears to be growing strong among the working class.

And with his very catchy political jingle popular among kids, he seems to be getting the nod of young children as well. Now, he aims for the teenage youth by getting Sarah Geronimo in his camp as the ambassador for “Katropa”, a youth organization headed by his daughter that helps in his political campaign. It seems that he got all the bases covered with his roaring machinery running strong and firing on all cylinders. Now we just have to wait and see what happens when all the hype and publicity dies down and gives way to the time when all votes are in.

Dick Gordon:Fighting for our Unsung Heroes

Everyday, our overseas Filipino workers brave uncharted territories away from their families in order for the possibility of a better life and a brighter future. They are the new, unsung heroes of our generation and they certainly uplift our gradually ailing economy because of their dollar remittance when they send allowances to their families. They are indeed helping our country surivive the worsening economic recession while supporting their families but their future is bleak because of lack of assurance and savings for the harsh times when they are too old to work.

Senator Dick Gordon is proposing for the perfect solution to help this modern day heroes and secure their own and as well as their families’ future after braving challenges in foreign lands. He suggested the creation of the Philippines’ own provident fund for OFWs, patterned after the Central Provident Fund (CPF) of Singapore because only a few of these workers are under the Social Security System and they have no benefits from their employers in foreign companies. The common formula here is to work, save and invest in the said fund so that the hard-earned money they worked so hard for will not grow stagnant and have the potential to snowball into something big with sound investments.

He reiterated that establishing this unprecedented program would broaden the opportunities available for OFWs, opportunities that are bleak if the government doesn’t act now and act fast. Likewise, this would give them a sense of security and confidence and will give them peace of mind especially in times when they are apart from their families. But Gordon still believes that the best thing to do for our people is to provide opportunities here for our workers so that they will not have to build their future in foreign shores. And one way to do that is to revitalize our system of education, another advocacy that he is valiantly fighting for.

Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro: Dropping out of the Rat Race

Every rumor has a tinge and grain of truth in it and every truth has the stain of lies behind it. Nothing is set in stone in this life and surprises can be found lurking in dark corners of reality and the unforeseeable future. And in the dirty arena of politics, no one can be fully trusted because at the end of the day when the media spotlight is tuned off from the eyes and ears of the public, politicians all think of themselves and how they can further their own careers.

And with rumors floating around that candidate Gilbert Teodoro is dropping out of the rat race for the highest seat in the country, speculations of a bigger conspiracy is whipping the Philippines in a frenzied gossipfest. Some say that Gibo is fighting a lost cause because the stigma and scandals of President Arroyo are inadvertently attached to his candidacy due to his affiliation with the current administration. Some also insist that he is giving way to Noynoy Aquino’s dream of the presidency and that he is backing down to help his cousin in his campaign that is trailing closely behind his biiter rival Manny Villar. And still some are quick to add that President Arroyo is secretly placing her bets on Villar and that Gibo is just a helpless pawn to mislead and misdirect the voting public from her crafty and deceitful intentions. This may be far-fetched and nothing more than hearsay but we have seen worse in our history of political corruption.

Although official statements has yet to be released and all legitimate candidates are still operating their political machinery round the clock, this rumors and speculations may have a hint of truth in it. Secret alliances are nothing new and anybody drops out of the race prematurely, it will have stunning ramifications this coming elections. If Gibo indeed backs down and pledge his support to Noynoy, it may shift the momentum to the yellow camp and will ultimately narrow down the race between the two leaders. All in all, these are just rumors, but you have been warned and you heard it here first.

Cell Phone Jammers Threaten Coming Election

Cell phone jammers, a form of electoral cheating, could disrupt the first automated elections in the Philippines in May.

The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) received reports that 5,000 jamming cell phones were shipped to the Philippines, threatening the success of clean and peaceful automated elections in the country.

COMELEC spokesperson James Jimenez said in an interview that the cell phones came in bulk, which made the shipment noticeable. “We cannot help but be suspicious,” Jimenez added.

The cell phone jammers could delay the transmission of election results. This said delay in results could be used by election cheaters to compute the needed votes to win or surpass the number of opponents’ votes. There are many ways to take advantage of the delay.

The election results deal with speed and should be transmitted as quickly as possible. If cell phone jammers will be out during the May elections, many cheaters will take advantage, and thus, the automated elections will not be of success.

Jimenez said that the use of jammers in the country is not illegal. Some churches use such devices to prevent interruption in the service. What made him suspicious is that the cell phone jammers came in bulk. Five thousand jammers is something to worry about.

COMELEC refused to disclose any counter measure to the said jammers.

Poll: Who will you vote for 2010 Senatorial Election?

Here are the COMELEC’s Official List of Senatorial Candidates for Philippine 2010 Election

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Poll: Who will you vote for 2010 Philippine Vice President?

Only eight of the 20 vice presidential hopefuls got qualified. So Who will you vote for 2010 Philippine Vice President?

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Pre-Election Violence Claims 21 People in Mindanao

The 2010 election campaign has taken a tragic turn, and it has not even officially started yet. 21 people were killed in the Mindanao region while on their way to file certificates of candidacy for the upcoming elections. These people were kidnapped and shot to death.

Election violence has been a perennial problem in our country, especially in this region. The conflict between the government and the rebel groups have always been a source of tension every year. Political rivalries have also been taken into the next level by leaders who employ private armies in order to protect themselves and possibly fend off their rivals.

Our country’s election campaign for the next year still has a long way to go. Despite the odds, we have to be optimistic that violence would not prevail over our votes. Meanwhile, let us be aware and be vigilant of our nation’s political situation especially in the coming months.

For more information about the incident, please visit this news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091123/ap_on_re_as/as_philippines_hostages_killed

Vilma and Ralph Join Noy Noy Aquino and Mar Roxas

Governor Vilma Santos and his husband former senator Ralph Recto officially announce that they will join the noy-mar team. This would spice up the liberation party. While Noy is still leading on Pulse Asia’s presidential survey.